BlogIndicators

Employment Indicators

There are several employment indicators, some of which are released weekly and others which come out monthly. The biggest of these, whichever currency pair or market you are trading is the Non Farm Payroll release, which is produced by the United States Department of Labor, on the first Friday of each month. This is the one that causes extreme volatility in the US dollar and all other major forex pairs as a result. You can find all the latest forex trading indicators in the daily economic calendar.

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  • Non Farm Payroll

This is released on the first Friday of each new trading month in the US, with data compiled by the US Department of Labor, with the headline figure detailing the number of new jobs created or lost in the previous month. Beneath the headline figure, lies a wealth of detail and information, which is then analysed over the next few minutes and hours for any clues as to future monetary policy from the FOMC, and potential interest rate changes which may occur as a result. As always, with any unemployment data, there is always a seasonal aspect to the analysis with part time employment in particular rising and falling according to holiday and festive periods. In general, any unemployment data is considered a leading indicator, as the rise and fall in the figures often provide an early signal of problems as the economy shrinks, or positive signs of growth as it expands. The jobs market also gives us some clues to inflation, since wage pressure will increase before companies pass on increases to consumers, and with increasing wages comes increasing spending which in turn has the potential to fuel inflation.

  • ADI

A relatively new employment indicator which is released on the Wednesday prior to the NFP data on Friday, and is compiled from payroll returns during the previous month. As such it is generally considered to be a good guide the the NFP release two days later.

  • Initial Jobless Claims

This is a weekly indicator and reports the number of new claimants for unemployment. As it is a weekly release, it is closely watched, and again is considered a leading indicator, providing a short term snapshot of the jobs market and underlying economic health of the nation.

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